Contact Us | Log In
Search
Sensex: 33342.8 +236.00 Gold: Rs.29653.00
Nifty: 10283.6 +68.80 Silver: Rs.39847.00
GDP to grow at 7% in fiscal 2018 - IndiaNotes.com
GDP to grow at 7% in fiscal 2018
CRISIL | Published: 06 Sep, 2017  | Source : IndiaNotes.com

CRISIL has trimmed its fiscal 2018 growth forecast for India by 40 basis points to 7% from 7.4% earlier, after data for the first quarter showed GDP growth at 5.7%, the slowest in the past three years.

The demonetisation-driven cash crunch hurt economic growth, especially small enterprises,  while  the imminent  rollout  of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) spurred destocking and a slowing of production brought down manufacturing growth.

The 7% growth forecast implies a GDP growth of 7.4% on average in the remaining three quarters.

We believe the sharp decline in growth in the first quarter is transitory and the economy will grind up  slowly over the next few quarters as  the  impact of demonetisation and destocking fades. The Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for August already signals a pick-up in manufacturing activity.


The growth will continue to be consumption-led, given

  • Normal monsoon

  • Softer interest rates and inflation

  • Pay commission implementation by the states which will push up purchasing power

  • Pent-up demand (demand postponed due to the demonetisation)

  • The downside risk to our growth outlook is from the GST implementation being more disruptive than what we anticipate.

  Read full report Click here to read the full report


About CRISIL

CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India's leading ratings agency. CRISIL is also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading corporations.


For more information please write in to editor@indianotes.com


Disclaimer: The author has taken due care and caution to compile and analyse the data. The opinions expressed above are only the views of the author, and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Neither the author nor IndiaNotes.com accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of any of the above contents.